Congress Gains Ground in Malwa-Nimar, BJP Faces Anti-Incumbency Wave

The Congress will need to hold onto some of the territory it had previously taken from its adversary in its stronghold of Malwa-Nimar. The Congress seems to have acquired an advantage over the BJP in this hotly fought Madhya Pradesh poll.

The Congress has benefited much from the regularity of the political debate outside of Indore, where the democratic process operates under unusual pressures and temperatures brought about by elements like nationalist fervor, money power, and religion.

In other sections of Malwa-Nimar, the conversation is dominated by problems like the emigration for work, the agricultural crisis, access to healthcare and education, and the corruption that impedes the development of even the most basic infrastructure.

More often than not, one hears phrases like "price rise," "unfulfilled promises," and "janata pareshan hai" (the people are suffering), as opposed to "Hindutva" and "videsh mein danka baj raha hai".

People in tribal and rural regions are more worried about the availability of physicians, the cost of urea and fuel, the lack of employment, the state of the roads, and the quality of their drinking water.

More people are worried about the cost of a cooking gas cylinder and want to hear about agricultural loan exemptions than they are about the opening of the Ram temple.

And in an area that the RSS had nurtured for decades, such normal discourse makes room for the Congress and puts it in a comfortable position, making it a BJP stronghold.

The Shivraj Singh Chouhan administration was certain to continue since the BJP won 41 of the 66 seats in this area in 2008 and 56 in 2013. The BJP was reduced to only 28 seats and forced out of power in 2018 as the Congress gained 35 seats.

The people's desire for change persisted even after Jyotiraditrya Scindia's defection upset the will of the electorate and reinstated the Shivraj administration.

Now, the anti-incumbency monster is tearing up the streets, yelling about broken promises, a dearth of basic services, and most importantly, sharply increasing costs for necessities.

The vast majority of the locals see "Mama" Shivraj as corrupt and Narendra Modi as "jhootha." It seems that their fervor for change has become more intense in opposition to the Shivraj administration.

The anger directed against Shivraj is evident in the abundance of recruiting scams, sand mining, and broken promises, but the discontent with Modi is as palpable.

Farmers lament that the Rs 6,000 annual cash aid program is useless due to growing input prices and ask where Modi's pledge to double their income by 2022 went.

Though the media may have forgotten all about the doubling-of-income pledge and the BJP may have weak justifications for supporting Modi, the promise nevertheless has a special place in the hearts of farmers. It hurts, too.

The Malwa-Nimar area comprises the following cities: Ujjain, Ratlam, Mandsaur, Neemuch, Dhar, Jhabua, Alirajpur, Badwani, Khargone, Burhanpur, Khandwa, Dewas, Shajapur, and Agar, in addition to Indore.

The Scheduled Tribes are entitled to 22 of the 66 seats. This time around, Mandsaur, where the BJP won every seat in 2018 despite the notorious police shooting on protesting farmers, is displaying a great deal of concern.

The whole tribe seemed to be impacted by the disgusting event of a BJP representative pissing on a destitute tribal a few months ago.

In an apparent bid to become chief minister, the Bharatiya Janata Party has entered Mandla MP and tallest tribal leader Faggan Singh Kulaste, a minister in the Union, in the Assembly race.

It's possible that this was done to appease the offended tribe, although Kulaste comes from Mahakaushal, a different part of the state, and the Congress includes well-known members from the Malwa area itself, such Kantilal Bhuria.

Leading the Bharat Jodo Yatra across the Malwa-Nimar area, Rahul Gandhi drew a resounding reaction from the public. That was seen by political analysts as a protest against the Shivraj regime.

Although the BJP has been in power for eighteen years, it is the day-to-day issues that have seriously harmed the party's chances.

"How can a politician with no shame at all guarantee a gas cylinder for Rs 450 when they've been selling it for Rs 1,100 for years? A farmer in Dewas said, "Modi is shameless."

Other topics of discussion include crimes against women, inadequate healthcare facilities, a poorly designed crop insurance program, and inadequate municipal infrastructure.

"BJP leaders are entitled to progress. A young guy in Burhanpur said, "Those who didn't have a motorbike are now driving about in a Scorpio.

They invade territory, pose a menace to humans, and are above the law. Though we support the BJP, there are things the Shivraj administration has to learn. We will back Modi once again in the legislative elections.

Uncertainty over Shivraj's future has also been brought about by the BJP's choice to field so many Union ministers and MPs in this election. Despite facing discontent on many fronts, he continues to be the sole BJP leader deemed acceptable in the state. The BJP would have been eliminated by now if not for his Ladli Behna program.

However, the BJP is in a lost cause as a result of the party's well-planned stunt to marginalize him and disseminate false information that anybody may become chief minister.

Not only are they not as bothered by the government and the police as they would be in any other state run by the BJP, but even Congress officials are surprised by this.

In almost every district, Congress workers say something like, "Shivraj ne dheela chhod diya (Shivraj has loosened his grip)."