BJP suffers 25 per cent loss in reserved Lok Sabha seats in 2024 compared to what it had won in 2019

Compared to the seats it had won in 2019, the BJP has lost 25% of the reserved Lok Sabha seats in 2024.

Of the 84 seats set aside for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and the 47 seats set aside for Scheduled Tribes (STs), the party won 25. The BJP had won 31 ST seats and 46 SC seats in 2019. The party has won 27 ST seats and 40 SC seats in 2014. In 2024, the BJP lost 19 seats in the reserved category in addition to 44 seats in the 226 non-reserved category constituencies.

Political analysts stated that Dalits were resolved to vote this time around against the BJP. As an astute observer of anti-caste politics, Tanoj Meshram, a former civil officer and associate professor of public policy at SPJIMR, Mumbai, noted that politically astute SCs, especially in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, have voted to keep the BJP from winning back power.

The SCs' anti-BJP stance was evident in both states. The social justice movement has been supported by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh and the Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA), which is led by Prakash Ambedkar, the grandson of Bhimrao Ambedkar, in Maharashtra. Dalits have always supported the parties with their votes.

Ten BSP candidates in UP and a candidate backed by the VBA in Maharashtra both won Lok Sabha seats in 2019. In Maharashtra, the VBA received more over 7% of the vote, whilst in Uttar Pradesh, the BSP received around 19% of the vote.

Neither the BSP nor the VBA were able to access their accounts this time. In Uttar Pradesh, the BSP's vote share has decreased to 9.39%, while the VBA's vote share has not yet been posted on the Election Commission website.

According to Meshram, the Dalits have a strong emotional bond with the Constitution since it has greatly aided in their success. "When the BJP announced the 400-paar slogan, they felt that the Constitution was in danger. It is evident that both states voted against the BJP," he remarked.

He used Mumbai North-Central and Ramtek as examples of SC seats.

Congress candidate Shyam Kumar Barve defeated Raju Parve of the Shiv Sena (Shinde) in Ramtek with 6.13 lakh votes. With the backing of the VBA, Kishore Gajbhiye, a former IAS official, ran as an independent.

Dalits make up a sizable portion of the voter base in the constituency, and Gajbhiye, a well-liked contender in the area for Congress in 2019, received 4.7 lakh votes. This time, the Congress refused to issue him a ticket, and even when Prakash Ambedkar, the head of the VBA, ran a campaign for Gajbhiye, he was only able to secure 24,000 votes.

"The Dalits believed that they had to destroy the BJP at all costs. They realized Gajbhiye couldn't win as an Independent with the backing of the VBA. All of them supported the candidacy of the Maha Vikash Aghadi (MVA)," Meshram remarked.

The BJP fielded attorney Ujwal Nikam in Mumbai North-Central; he is thought not to have fought hard as a public prosecutor in the case pertaining to the 2006 killing of four Dalits in Khairlanji. Thus, the Dalits banded together to vote against him.

Despite not being a resident of the Mumbai South-Central Lok Sabha seat, Dalit activist and MLA Varsha Gaikwad ran as a candidate for the Congress and won the Mumbai North-Central seat.

The Samajwadi Party secured 37 seats in UP. "This could not have been possible without the support of the Dalits," he stated. According to Meshram, the Dalits were further drawn closer to the Congress because of the party's stance on a caste census and equitable representation of all socioeconomic groups in government employment.

Meshram claimed that the Dalits were afraid that the next administration will drastically alter the Constitution because of the BJP's slogan of "400+ seats." A 35-year-old tribal man from Wardha, Maharashtra named Chandrasekhar Madavi stated that the "unconstitutional activities" of the BJP were a source of concern for the SCs and STs. "The party is making every effort to hold onto power under Modi. Since the Constitution forbids the use of religion in politics, it is exploiting religion to further its goals, according to Madavi.